Arctic Sea Ice and Extreme Weather Events

Changes in annual mean Arctic sea ice extent (NSIDC, Sea Ice Index v3) and air temperature anomalies (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature; BEST) over the satellite era. BEST is available from 1850 to 2021 at http://berkeleyearth.org/data/. Updated 2/18/2022.

Surface temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at over three times the rate of the global mean in response to natural and forced climate change[1], known as “Arctic Amplification”. This warming is further magnified as a result of positive feedbacks in the climate system.

Evaluating the effects of melting sea ice as a result of Arctic Amplification can affect planetary vertical wave propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere and have important implications on the magnitude and location of the polar vortex. By understanding this complex relationship, we may be able to better simulate and detect changes in the prevalence of extreme weather events in the midlatitudes, particularly across the northeastern United States.[2],[3],[4]

For my PhD research, I worked in Dr. Gudrun Magnusdottir’s Research Group to apply a series of GCM ensemble experiments to understand the dynamics and relative forcings of natural and anthropogenic climate change on this high latitude circulation and resultant teleconnection.


Refereed/Peer-Reviewed:

[12] Timmermans, M.-L. and Z.M. Labe (2022). [The Arctic] Sea surface temperature [in “State of the Climate in 2021”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0082.1
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Press Release]

[11] Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2022), Comparison of climate model large ensembles with observations in the Arctic using simple neural networks. Earth and Space Science, DOI:10.1029/2022EA002348
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Plain Language Summary]

[10] Timmermans, M.-L. and Z.M. Labe (2021). Sea surface temperature [in “Arctic Report Card 2021”], NOAA, DOI:10.25923/2y8r-0e49
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Press Release]

[9] Timmermans, M.-L. and Z.M. Labe (2021). [The Arctic] Sea surface temperature [in “State of the Climate in 2020”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0086.1
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Press Release]

[8] Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir (2021), Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Plain Language Summary][CLIVAR Research Highlight]

[7] Timmermans, M.-L. and Z.M. Labe (2020). Sea surface temperature [in “Arctic Report Card 2020”], NOAA, DOI:10.25923/v0fs-m920
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Press Release]

[6] Timmermans, M.-L., Z.M. Labe, and C. Ladd (2020). [The Arctic] Sea surface temperature [in “State of the Climate in 2019”], Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0086.1
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Press Release]

[5] Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088583
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[Plain Language Summary][CBS News][Science Magazine]

[4] Thoman, R.L., U. Bhatt, P. Bieniek, B. Brettschneider, M. Brubaker, S. Danielson, Z.M. Labe, R. Lader, W. Meier, G. Sheffield, and J. Walsh (2019): The record low Bering Sea ice extent in 2018: Context, impacts and an assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2018 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0175.1
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Press Release]

[3] Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL083095
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Plain Language Summary]

[2] Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2018), Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2018GL078158
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Plain Language Summary][Arctic Today]

[1] Labe, Z.M., G. Magnusdottir, and H.S. Stern (2018), Variability of Arctic sea ice thickness using PIOMAS and the CESM Large Ensemble, Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0436.1
[HTML][BibTeX][Code]
[Plain Language Summary]

Submitted:

[1] Timmermans, M.-L. and Z.M. Labe (2022). Sea surface temperature [in “Arctic Report Card 2022”]. (submitted)
[Code]

Non-refereed/Other:

[8] Labe, Z.M., August 2021: Sharing data-driven stories of Arctic climate change. WMO/WWRP Year of Polar Prediction. PolarPredictNews.
[HTML][PDF]

[7] Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir, August 2021: How reproducible is the response to +2°C Arctic sea-ice loss in a large ensemble of simulations? CLIVAR Research Highlight.
[Article]

[6] Labe, Z.M., July 2021: State of the Arctic. Polar Bears International. Blog Post.
[Article]

[5] Labe, Z.M., February 2021: Telling stories with data. School of Global Environmental Sustainability, HumanNature Blog. Blog Post.
[Article]

[4] Labe, Z.M., September 2020: A Sign of the Future: Summer 2020 in the Arctic. Polar Bears International. Blog Post.
[Article]

[3] Labe, Z.M., July 2020: State of the Arctic in 2020. Polar Bears International. Blog Post.
[Article]

[2] Labe, Z.M., May 2020: The effects of Arctic sea-ice thickness loss and stratospheric variability on mid-latitude cold spells. University of California, Irvine. Doctoral Dissertation.
[PDF]

[1] Labe, Z.M., November 2019: Understanding Our Changing Arctic. Polar Bears International. Annual Magazine.
[PDF]


Presentations:

[31] Myint, H. and Z.M. Labe. Predicting September Arctic sea-ice using a hierarchy of statistical models, 21st Annual Student Conference: Polar Meteorology, Virtual Attendance (Jan 2022).
[Abstract]

[30] Lehner, F., E. Fischer, Z.M. Labe, S. Milinski, M. Röthlisberger, I. Simpson, S. Sippel, and J. Zscheischler. Evaluating large ensembles for persistent extreme events such as the 2020 temperature anomaly over Siberia, 2021 American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, Virtual Attendance (Dec 2021).
[Abstract]

[29] Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir. Arctic-midlatitude linkages: role of sea ice loss versus full Arctic amplification. US CLIVAR PPAI Panel Webinar Series, Remote talk (Apr 2021).

[28] Magnusdottir, G., Z.M. Labe, and Y. Peings. The warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of the full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone. Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison (PAMIP) Virtual Workshop, Virtual Conference (Mar 2021).

[27] Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir. Influence of internal variability: how to ensure results are robust? Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison (PAMIP) Virtual Workshop, Virtual Conference (Mar 2021).

[26] Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir. Arctic-midlatitude linkages: role of sea ice loss versus full Arctic Amplification, Arctic Science Summit Week 2021, Virtual Conference (Mar 2021).

[25] Labe, Z.M.. The pan-Arctic impacts of thinning sea ice. Local Environmental Observer (LEO) Network, Anchorage, AK (Jan 2021). (Invited-remote talk). [SlideShare][Webinar]

[24] Magnusdottir, G., Z.M. Labe, and Y. Peings. The midlatitude response to Arctic sea-ice decline, compared to the response to the full effects of Arctic amplification, 34th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, Virtual Conference (Jan 2021).
[Abstract][Code]

[23] Peings, Y., G. Magnusdottir., and Z.M. Labe. Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss?, 34th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, Virtual Conference (Jan 2021).
[Abstract][Code]

[22] Magnusdottir, G., Z.M. Labe, and Y. Peings. How does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice decline compare to the full effect of the Arctic Amplification?, 2020 American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, Virtual Conference (Dec 2020).
[Abstract][Code]

[21] Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir. Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss?, 2020 American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, Virtual Conference (Dec 2020).
[Abstract][Code]

[20] Labe, Z.M. Why is it difficult to resolve future projections of Arctic-midlatitude linkages? Atmospheric Dynamics Seminar, Colorado State University, CO (Dec 2020). (Remote talk)

[19] Labe, Z.M. Trends and regional variability of observed Arctic sea ice thickness. ACCAP’s Virtual Alaska Weather Symposia webinar series, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (Oct 2020). (Invited-remote talk)
[Webinar]

[18] Labe, Z.M. Refining projections of the ‘warm Arctic, cold Siberia’ pattern in climate model simulations. Atmosphere and Ocean Climate Dynamics seminar, Yale University, CT (Sep 2020). (Invited-remote talk)

[17] Labe, Z.M. Projections of a future Arctic climate. Geography Department, Irvine Valley College, CA (May 2020). (Invited-remote talk)
[SlideShare]

[16] Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir. Detection of Signal in the Large-Scale Circulation Response to Arctic Sea-Ice Decline, 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, Boston, MA (Jan 2020).
[Abstract][Code]

[15] Magnusdottir, G., Y. Peings, and Z.M. Labe. Response to sea-ice loss under the Polar Amplification MIP protocol in extended ensembles of simulations, 2019 American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA (Dec 2019).
[Abstract][Code]

[14] Labe, Z.M. Melting Ice: Context, Causes, and Consequences of Polar Amplification. Kavli Frontiers of Science, National Academy of Science, Jerusalem, Israel (Sep 2019). (Invited)
[Recording][SlideShare]

[13] Magnusdottir, G., Y. Peings, and Z.M. Labe. Impact of the QBO on the response to Arctic sea ice loss. Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison (PAMIP) Workshop, Devon, UK (Jun 2019).
[Slides]

[12] Labe, Z.M. Projections of a future Arctic climate. Geography Department, Irvine Valley College, CA (May 2019). (Invited)
[SlideShare]

[11] Labe, Z.M., G. Magnusdottir, and Y. Peings. Linking the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Projected Arctic Sea-Ice Loss to Stratospheric Variability in Early Winter, 20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere, Phoenix, AZ (Jan 2019).
[Abstract][Code]

[10] Holman, A., R. Thoman, Z.M. Labe, and J.E. Walsh. Not Just Chance: Ocean and Atmospheric Factors in the Record Low Bering Sea Ice Winter of 2017-2018 and effects on health and safety, 2018 American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, Washington, DC (Dec 2018).
[Abstract][Code]

[9] Magnusdottir, G., Z.M. Labe, and Y. Peings. The role of the stratosphere, including the QBO, in Arctic to mid-latitude teleconnections associated with sea-ice forcing, 2018 American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, Washington, DC (Dec 2018).
[Abstract][Code]

[8] Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, H.S. Stern, and G. Magnusdottir. Arctic sea ice thickness variability and its influence on the atmospheric response to projected sea ice loss. Machine Learning and Physical Sciences (MAPS) Symposium, University of California, Irvine (May 2018).

[7] Labe, Z.M. Loss of Arctic sea ice thickness affects the large-scale atmosphere, Arctic System Change Workshop at NCAR, Boulder, CO (Apr 2018).
[Poster][Code]

[6] Labe, Z.M. Disentangling Arctic climate change and variability. Geography Department, Irvine Valley College, CA (Apr 2018). (Invited)

[5] Thoman, R. and Z.M. Labe., 2017−18 Sea Ice in Western Alaska during the 2017−18 Season: Historical Context and Possible Drivers, Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference and Forum, Nome, AK (Mar 2018).
[Code]

[4] Labe, Z.M., G. Magnusdottir, and H.S. Stern. Variability and future projections of Arctic sea ice thickness. Understanding the Causes and Consequences of Polar Amplification Workshop, Aspen Global Change Institute, Aspen, CO (Jun 2017).
[Recording][Slides]

[3] Labe, Z.M., G. Magnusdottir, and H.S. Stern. Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Variability and the Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation Using Satellite Observations, PIOMAS, and the CESM Large Ensemble, 14th Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, Seattle, WA (Jan 2017).
[Abstract] [Poster][Code]

[2] Labe, Z.M. Communicating the Future of Arctic Climate Change, Natural Sciences Division, Fullerton College, CA (Nov 2016). (Invited)

[1] Labe, Z.M., G. Magnusdottir, and H.S. Stern. Making the most of Arctic sea ice thickness observations, Symposium on Recent Advances in Data Science, University of California, Irvine (Oct 2016).
[Poster][Code]


Resources: